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  • Gillard has strong support of caucus: Swan

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    Back in the house ... Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

    ‘Most of it is just a huge beat-up’ … Treasurer Wayne Swan with Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Photo: AFP

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard has the strong support of caucus and media reports of a looming leadership challenge have been fuelled by a few disgruntled individuals, Treasurer Wayne Swan says.

    Mr Swan today described much of the media coverage of the economy and supposed leadership tensions as simply bizarre.

    He said talk of a leadership challenge was divorced from reality.

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    The treasurer said he was taking Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd – who has persistently denied he’s gathering the numbers to mount a challenge – at his word.

    “The Prime Minister has the strong support of our caucus. She is someone who is getting things done. That is the overwhelming view of our caucus and I think the overwhelming view of people in the community, as they want us to get on with those big tasks,” Mr Swan told ABC TV.

    He said the community has had a gutful of so much of the commentary and speculation.

    “Most of it is just a huge beatup. Sure there’s one or two individuals out there who are disgruntled. They are feeding some of these stories,” he said.

    “But the great bulk of the coverage that I read is just completely divorced from reality.”

    Asked if he would serve in a Rudd government, Mr Swan said he would not respond to speculation.

    “I am a loyal member of the Labor party. I love the Labor party and I love my country,” he said.

    AAP


  • Dear Mr Swan, let’s talk: Tony Abbott

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    Tony Abbott ... "crystal clear".

    Tony Abbott … invitation to talk. Photo: Andrew Meares

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott has written to acting prime minister Wayne Swan agreeing to a meeting at 1.30pm today between Coalition and government ministers on the border protection impasse.

    But the Coalition is only willing to discuss the re-establishment of offshore processing centres on Nauru and Papua New Guinea, and has again rejected the government’s Malaysia deal.

    Mr Abbott said the Coalition didn’t believe a change in legislation was needed to reopen the centres, but was prepared to work with the Government to progress offshore processing in these two countries “as expeditiously as possible”.

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    The Coalition will send its immigration spokesman Scott Morrison and foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop to the meeting, and asked that foreign minister Kevin Rudd also attend.

    A spokesman for immigration minister Chris Bowen confirmed Mr Rudd would accompany immigration minister Chris Bowen to the meeting, to be held at 1.30pm in Sydney.

    Mr Abbott said in the letter that Mr Swan’s written proposal received yesterday, which ruled out the Coalition’s policy of temporary protection visas, was “disappointing” and had contradicted government statements that it was willing to consider all options.

    “However just as you have made it clear you rule out TPVs but want the discussions with the Coalition to proceed, I make it clear we are also willing to meet but note that nothing has changed regarding our position and objections to the Malaysia people swap,” Mr Abbott wrote.

    Mr Abbott said the Coalition had received the letter at around 6.30pm, more than an hour after Mr Bowen announced the move in a press conference.

    Mr Abbott said on radio this morning: “We are going to sign up on Nauru. I mean, any help they need to do Nauru, we will give them. Now we will urge them introduce temporary protection visas and they don’t need legislation to do that. They can do that with the stroke of a pen. We will urge them to also adopt a policy of turning boats around where it’s safe to do so but we are going to give them full cooperation on any good policy that they put forward.”

    Mr Bowen said today that the meeting was about compromises.

    “I wish it had happened nine days ago, but… I really do genuinely welcome the fact that it’s going to happen today. The test is whether that meeting is held in good faith, whether the Liberal Party comes to the table in good faith. If we’re going to have a meeting where we lecture each other about the benefits of our policy and the drawbacks of the other side’s policy then there’s no point,” Mr Bowen told ABC.

    He said legislative changes were needed to reopen Nauru, and that a detention centre in Nauru on its own would not be a deterrent to asylum seekers making dangerous boat journeys.

    “It’s quite clear that we need legislation not only to implement Malaysia, but the Liberal Party would need the same legislation if they were ever wanting to implement Nauru,” Mr Bowen said.

    Kirsty Needham is Fairfax’s Immigration Correspondent


  • Rich school, poor school

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    The long-awaited Gonski review into school funding will be released on Monday week.

    The long-awaited Gonski review into school funding will be released on Monday week.

    Of all the scars the Labor Party carries from Mark Latham’s turbulent 13-month reign as leader, perhaps the most visible ones can be seen in its approach to school funding. On September 14, 2004, Latham announced a plan to slash funding to 67 of Australia’s wealthiest private schools and redirect the money to less-well-off schools.

    ”Labor has a very, very different approach to the funding of schools than the Howard government,” Latham said then. ”We fund schools on the basis of need, we want equity in action in the Australian schools system.”

    The move was intended, and read, as an act of class warfare; private schools saw the announcement as an attack on parental choice, while the Australian Education Union and then Victorian premier Steve Bracks said the policy would institutionalise fairness.

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    But the policy proved politically disastrous and much of Labor’s efforts in education since have been aimed at convincing the non-government school sector that it means it no harm.

    When Kim Beazley regained the Labor leadership after Latham’s implosion, he promptly discarded his predecessor’s Robin Hood approach, arguing it was based on the ”politics of envy”.

    When Labor, with Kevin Rudd at the helm, went to the 2007 election, it promised to preserve the Howard government’s arrangements for a further four years while it conducted a review of the funding model.

    But this review was not launched until April 2010 and, when Julia Gillard rushed to the polls months later, she sought to neutralise the issue by promising to extend the current arrangements until the end of 2013, guaranteeing there would be no change in this term.

    That the Howard-era system they hate survives untouched more than four years after Labor came to power is a sore point for public education advocates.

    But the end of their anxious wait, and that of independent and Catholic educators and others with an interest in the nation’s schools, is in sight. The review panel, led by businessman David Gonksi, took more than 7000 submissions and handed its final report to School Education Minister Peter Garrett before Christmas.

    The panel’s work – the first comprehensive review of school funding since the 1970s – will be released on February 20.

    But it is likely to be some time before the implications of its recommendations are clear. Garrett told The Age that the government would issue only an ”initial response” to the report on Monday week, and that it had further work to do on ”an issue that lies right at the heart of our prospects as a nation”.

    The federal government didn’t provide any funding to the states for schools until 1964, when it gave both government and non-government secondary schools grants for science laboratories. Then, in 1970, the Commonwealth began providing recurrent funding for schools.

    At first, the assistance was aimed at the struggling Catholic school sector, at the rate of $35 per primary school student and $50 for every secondary school student. A turning point came in 1973, when the Whitlam government extended Commonwealth recurrent funding to government schools.

    Today, only about a third of Commonwealth schools funding goes to government schools, which receive most of their funding from state governments. The Commonwealth gives government schools 10 per cent of the Average Government School Recurrent Costs, a measure of how much government schools are spending on each of their students.

    It’s a different story for non-government schools, which receive about a third of their income from the Commonwealth and little over 10 per cent from the state (the rest comes from parents).

    Under the current model, introduced by the Howard government in 2001, non-government schools are allocated federal funding according to the socio-economic status of the areas in which students live as determined by census data.

    Each school is given a score based on the income, education and occupational characteristics of its school community. This score determines what proportion of the Average Government School Recurrent Costs the school gets.

    Schools serving the least disadvantaged communities receive 13.7 per cent of this amount. Those serving the most disadvantaged communities, as well as special schools and majority indigenous schools, receive 70 per cent of this amount.

    At least that is the way the model was supposed to work. Confusingly, more than 1075 schools have had their entitlements preserved and fully indexed at the levels they received under the previous system, because the Howard government promised no school would be worse off under its system.

    Due to this quirk, two schools serving comparable communities can receive vastly different funding allocations simply because one existed before 2001 while the other did not.

    The federal Education Department projects the difference in annual cost between funding schools in this way and funding schools according to their SES score will exceed $700 million this year. Garrett has declared there is ”no sound policy basis” for this, and Gonski told education ministers last year the panel viewed it as a historic anomaly that had to be corrected. Even non-government school representatives have conceded that the provisions are unlikely to survive the review.

    This complexity, and the consequent lack of transparency, is one of the most common criticisms of the model, and Garrett is determined to address it.

    ”The main thing that I’d be saying about the review is we know we’ve got a funding model that isn’t transparent and clear,” he says. Others say the model has not delivered on the Howard government’s predictions that it would extend choice to lower-income families by making non-government schooling more affordable.

    Research by the Australian National University’s Chris Ryan found that while enrolments in low-fee private schools had grown strongly since the model was introduced, the private school share of enrolments grew fastest at the top half of the income distribution, leading to a situation in which most students in the public sector attend schools where the average socio-economic status of their fellow pupils is below average.

    Rather than using their increased subsidies to lower fees, private schools have tended to put their resources into lifting quality by employing more teachers and lowering class sizes.

    The New South Wales government highlighted the impact of such concentrations of disadvantage in its submission to the review, citing research which showed that the backgrounds of a student’s classmates had a significant influence on that student’s chances of success at school, regardless of their individual circumstances.

    While Australia’s overall results in international tests place it among the top performing nations, equity is a weak point. There is a much stronger relationship between a student’s background and their results in Australia than there is in nations such as Finland.

    The panel has made equity a focus of its work, writing in an emerging issues paper in December 2010 that ”differences in educational outcomes should not be the result of differences in wealth, income, power or possessions”.

    The Coalition worries the review’s focus on supporting ”equity in educational outcomes” is too narrow.

    ”In schooling, one size does not fit all,” Coalition education spokesman Christopher Pyne argued in his submission to the review.

    ”If the idea of ‘equity in educational outcomes’ were to result in schools becoming equally poor then the panel would agree that this concept is counter to the aims of this review.”

    Pyne has accused the government of waging ”ideological war” on private schools and has said Garrett’s promise that ”no school will lose a dollar in per-student terms” will amount to a cut in real terms.

    “Coalition estimates show there could be a $4.2 billion shortfall over four years if indexation is not maintained at current levels, which schools will be forced to find through higher school fees or staff cuts,” he said.

    Garrett says Pyne is ”making mischief” and says that since coming to office Labor has delivered billions in extra resources to private schools, including for new buildings and computers. ”I think both our actions and our delivery, our legislation and our financial commitment speak volumes,” he says.

    However, Bill Daniels, executive director of The Independent Schools Council of Australia – which represents 1100 schools that educate 1.2 million of the 3.4 million schoolchildren in the country – gets little comfort from the government’s assurance. ”School costs are rising every year,” he says. ”If funding isn’t maintained in real terms, you’re cutting funding.” And in tight budget circumstances, he says ”it would be extremely difficult to have a no-losers strategy”.

    The Catholic sector has argued against an undue focus on the socio-economic characteristics of school communities. In its submission to the review, the National Catholic Education Commission warned of the danger of making erroneous assumptions about the capacity of parents to pay fees.

    ”It effectively assumes a homogenous population with each parent having the same capacity to pay,” its submission says.

    Unlike independent schools, the Catholic sector believes a school’s resources, including income from fees, should be taken into account in determining its funding allocation, although it says this should not be done in a way that deters private investment.

    The Catholic sector says it sets fee levels low to keep its schools affordable, but receives similar grants to other schools with greater resources.

    The Australian Education Union says nothing less than an overhaul of current funding arrangements, and greater investment in public schools, is needed.

    The union’s federal president, Angelo Gavrielatos, says the current funding arrangements have caused standards to fall and led to an increasing divide between the performance of children in rich and poor schools.

    Gavrielatos hopes the review will recommend a new model that will better target resources to where they are needed most. At present, governments cannot boost funding to government schools without also boosting funding to all private schools, because private school funding allocations are calculated as a percentage of spending on government schools.

    Gavrielatos expects the panel to recommend the creation of a ”resource standard”, which would specify how much funding a school would need to achieve certain outcomes. Additional funding would be provided for special circumstances, such as for remote schools, or those teaching indigenous students or those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

    The feasibility of such a model was the subject of a report the review panel commissioned from the Allen Consulting Group.

    As insiders speculate on what the panel has recommended and what the government will do, public education advocates take heart from Prime Minister Gillard’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives, delivered in 1998.

    ”The students from my electorate are not any less intelligent than those from [the wealthier electorates] Higgins or Kooyong but their educational opportunities are not the same,” she said.

    ”Certainly, this massive discrepancy would be lessened if we as a nation were prepared to seriously tackle the inequality of opportunity that exists in our education system and create a high-class state school system.

    ”My predecessor, Barry Jones, used to say that unfortunately postcodes are probably the strongest factor in determining a person’s expectations of success in life. It will be one of my priorities in politics to ensure that in the Australia of the future the famous quizmaster is, for once, wrong.”

    twitter Follow the National Times on Twitter: @NationalTimesAU


  • A Dane in the life of Tony Abbott, from Joh to whoa

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      Royals’ day of Danish promotion

      Mary and her prince begin their day in Melbourne with a special message delivered from a little girl.

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      A strange giddiness overtakes the otherwise relatively sober when they find themselves in the presence of royalty, but Opposition Leader Tony Abbott quite lost his grip yesterday when welcoming Crown Prince Frederik and Australian’s own royal highness, Crown Princess Mary of Denmark.

      ”In the past,” brayed Mr Abbott to a luncheon in honour of the couple in Parliament House, Canberra, ”Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen was probably considered Denmark’s greatest gift to Australia.”

      This may have come as a surprise, even to Sir Joh himself were he still alive. The former Queensland premier and steward of what turned out to be one of Australia’s most corrupt state governments was born in New Zealand in 1911 (his parents had emigrated from Denmark).

      Advertisement: Story continues below The Danish royal couple are greeted by Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Canberra.

      The Danish royal couple are greeted by Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Canberra. Photo: Andrew Meares

      Abbott plunged on. ”Subsequently, some may have nominated Joern Utzon, the designer of the Opera House, as Denmark’s greatest gift to Australia.” That was more like it, though the unfortunate Utzon came up against the New South Wales Liberal state government of the corrupt Robert Askin.

      Utzon packed his bags in 1966, vowing never to return, and was not invited to the official opening in 1973.

      The crown prince and the crown princess sat through Mr Abbott’s welcome with remarkable aplomb. They had, after all, been treated already to a gushing introduction by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who spoke of their marriage as ”a modern fairytale”. ”A beautiful young woman meets a handsome prince and they live happily ever after,” Ms Gillard said. Tim Mathieson was nowhere in sight.

      Even Ngunnawal indigenous elder Janette Phillips, delivering a welcome to the country, was swept away. Princess Mary, she declared, had given Australian women everywhere fresh hope that ”Prince Charming really could be out there”.

      But Mr Abbott outdid all, declaring the former Mary Donaldson’s marriage to Crown Prince Frederik was a pretty good effort for a girl from Taroona High School in Hobart, a rather better achievement, he said, than that of fellow Taroona graduate, the opposition leader in the Senate, Eric Abetz.

      Mr Abbott did not mention that Senator Abetz was a gift to Australia from his birthplace in Stuttgart, Germany.

      Mr Abbott the fitness fanatic paid special tribute to Prince Frederik for his ”remarkable distinction of running a marathon in three hours and 22 minutes”.

      ”Many of us in this building would wish to emulate that feat, sir,” said Mr Abbott, whose best time is 3:47 – although his most recent effort took almost five hours.

      The crown prince could not quite help himself when he rose to accept the accolades. He pointed out it was actually three hours and six minutes, and he had done it six times.

      The prince then treated guests – and Mr Abbott, a climate change sceptic – to a gentle lecture about the need to face up to a future where population growth and climate change were the great challenges. Denmark, through research and development, carbon pricing and the introduction of alternative energy sources, had become one of the most energy-efficient nations in the world, he said. There had been no growth in power consumption while its population had ballooned, and it had reduced carbon emissions by 15 per cent since 1990.

      He was too elegant to add, though he could have, surely: ”Take that!”

      twitter Follow the National Times on Twitter: @NationalTimesAU


  • Don’t give Gillard any free kicks, says Abbott

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    Opposition leader Tony Abbott says the prime minister is "playing the sexism card because she sees the end game coming."

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott says the prime minister is “playing the sexism card because she sees the end game coming.” Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

    Tony Abbott has told his MPs that only Coalition ill-discipline can save Labor and Julia Gillard, urging his side to avoid unnecessary fights over principle.

    Addressing his party room as Parliament resumed for the year, Mr Abbott cited internal divisions over the Murray-Darling Basin and subsidies for the automotive industry as examples.

    ”The fight you have over $500 million here and 1000 gigalitres is the type of fight you have in government,” sources quoted Mr Abbott as saying.

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    ”In opposition we can’t fix these things so don’t get bogged down in them.”

    With Ms Gillard’s leadership under strain and the Greens claiming she is a victim of misogyny, Mr Abbott told his MPs and senators the Prime Minister was ”playing the sexism card because she sees the end game coming”.

    ”The only thing that can save this government is a disorganised opposition,” he said.

    There are geographical differences in the Coalition about the plan to save the Murray-Darling Basin concerning the competing needs of irrigators and the river.

    Last month, the Herald reported a split in the Coalition over its policy position to axe $500 million from the present round of automotive subsidies.

    As Mr Abbott delivered his message, a fresh bout of confusion erupted in the Coalition about its claims concerning when it would return the budget to surplus, if elected.

    The government has promised a surplus next financial year and the Coalition has always said that if it were in government, it would achieve a surplus by the same time, if not sooner.

    But on Monday, the opposition finance spokesman, Andrew Robb, walked away from the commitment, saying there may not be a surplus in the first term of a Coalition government, given the uncertainty about the budget numbers.

    The opposition frontbencher Christopher Pyne then said the Coalition would be in a better position to say when it could deliver a surplus once in power.

    The shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey attempted to mop up yesterday, saying the Coalition would return the budget to surplus ”as soon as possible”.

    ”When we see the final numbers that are released by the Treasury during the election campaign, we will base all our figures on that and you’ll see in full detail what our numbers will look like,” he said.

    The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, leapt on the confusion, calling it a ”slapstick farce”.

    Needing to find billions in savings, the Coalition has been lowering expectations of what it could afford in a first term.

    Last week, Mr Abbott outlined policy ”aspirations” rather than promises.

    In a bid to shake off the poor start to the year for the government, Ms Gillard has declared the resumption of Parliament as the start of a year-long debate on the economy.

    ”[It] will define who you stand for, who you stand with and who you seek to benefit,” she told Parliament.

    In the wake of this week’s Herald/Nielsen poll, which showed a spike in support for both Ms Gillard and the government, the chatter about a leadership push by Kevin Rudd subsided yesterday.

    Labor strategists attributed the poll boost to the government focusing in recent weeks on the automotive industry and its subsidising of the industry to keep it viable.

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  • Tony Abbott says it’s time to move on after ‘unfortunate’ comment

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      Abbott defends ‘shit happens’ comment

      Tony Abbott interviewed by 2GB’s Alan Jones over his comment on the firefight that killed Lance Corporal Jared MacKinney.

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      Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says it’s time to move on from his comments about the death of a soldier in Afghanistan, out of respect for the soldier’s widow.

      “Subsequent to the broadcast last night I had a conversation with Mrs Becky MacKinney and she subsequently put out a statement and I just think the matter should rest there out of respect to her,” Mr Abbott told Macquarie Radio today.

      “Out of respect to Becky MacKinney I think we should all move on.”

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      It was “an unfortunate incident”, Mr Abbott added.

      Mr Abbott became embroiled in controversy yesterday after the Seven Network aired footage of him discussing the circumstances that led to the death of Lance Corporal Jared MacKinney in Afghanistan last year.

      Visiting Tarin Kowt in October, Mr Abbott in a conversation with the US commander of coalition forces in Oruzgan province Colonel Jim Creighton and some Australian soldiers, said: “It’s pretty obvious that, well, sometimes shit happens, doesn’t it?”

      One of the soldiers then says: “It certainly does, yeah.” Those comments were not broadcast in the initial report on Seven.

      Speaking about the Seven Network’s coverage of his comments, Mr Abbott said: “A lot of people would have seen that broadcast. They’ll make their own decision about what TV channels choose to broadcast.”

      On his refusal to answer some of Seven reporter Mark Riley’s questions on the issue, the Opposition Leader said: “As a general principle I think as dignified a silence as you can muster is sometimes the best response.”

      Mrs MacKinney has thanked Mr Abbott for calling her to discuss the issue.

      “Tony and I spoke at length and I fully accept that he was quoted out of context in the television news,” she said in a statement last night.

      “As far as we, Jared’s family, are concerned there is no issue, the matter is over, and we will be making no further comment.”

      Lance Corporal MacKinney’s father Ian MacKinney has said that Mr Abbott’s comments to officers were out of line and made him “feel sick”.

      Senior opposition frontbencher Andrew Robb said Mr Abbott’s comments were a very human reaction to an unavoidable tragedy.

      “It was a serious attempt in the vernacular … saying to them in a way to console them, these things happen and don’t beat yourselves up,” Mr Robb told ABC Radio.

      AAP


  • Gillard’s hold: Labor MPs nervous, says minister

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    Likes his sport ... Stephen Conroy.

    Stephen Conroy … said questions over the Labor leadership were due to the government making hard decisions. Photo: Andrew Meares

    Labor frontbencher Stephen Conroy has confirmed Labor MPs are nervous as senior government ministers rallied for the third day around the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, who is reported to be losing her grasp on the leadership.

    A key factional backer of Ms Gillard was reported by Fairfax Media today as saying the Prime Minister had lost the support of a substantial number of MPs over the parliamentary break.

    The senior factional boss said “there’s been quite a shift over summer” and “she’s in trouble”.

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    The report comes after a turbulent week for Labor in which former leader Simon Crean labelled the former prime minister, Kevin Rudd, as a “prima donna”, who was not a team player.

    Responding to Mr Crean’s comments – which included an admonition to drop any plans to return to the leadership – Mr Rudd said yesterday he was “proud to be a member of this ministerial team, which is very strong, very dedicated, very hard-working and in which Simon himself plays a very positive role”.

    Senator Conroy said questions over the Labor leadership were due to the government making “the hard decisions” in its policy agenda.

    He said Ms Gillard had the full support of the party but also said there was a level of unrest among the Labor backbench.

    “We’ve been taking hard decisions,” he said. “Some popular and some unpopular and we are going through some challenging times. [These are] decisions which will cause some people to be nervous.”

    The Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, said he was tired of political sources leaking to journalists.

    “We’ve got a huge job to do and I focus on my job and I think all of my colleagues do their best to focus on theirs,” Mr Combet told ABC Radio this morning.

    “I lose patience with people who are talking to journalists and there’s no name attached to it and you wonder who on earth it was.”

    Ms Gillard’s deputy, the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, tried to hose down the leadership speculation before attending a prayer service to mark the first anniversary of cyclone Yasi hitting Queensland.

    “[Ms Gillard's] got strong support because she is a really strong leader,” he said. “She’s demonstrated that time and time again.”

    He said Labor was unified as a team and that Mr Rudd was “the Foreign Minister doing a good job”.

    “I’m out there all of the time, I’m working with all our other ministers,” he said. “We’ve got a good team.”

    Labor backbencher Andrew Leigh said constant leadership speculation was of no interest to the public except “a small tight political coterie who are constantly engaged in gossip mongering”.

    “Of course I’ve got strong support for the Prime Minister and I think the Foreign Minister is doing a terrific job,” he said.

    “But I just don’t think they’re the top issues of the morning.”

    Liberal backbencher Kelly O’Dwyer likened the situation to a hostage crisis, saying Australia was beholden to a siege of its political leaders.


  • Gillard backers fear seismic shift in support for PM

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      Pressure mounting on Gillard

      Labor leadership speculation increases around Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

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      The storm clouds in Canberra hovering over Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s leadership manifested in physical form today with the annual Prime Minister’s XI cricket match set to be cancelled due to rain.

      Ms Gillard was battered for a fourth day by mounting speculation that her hold on the Labor leadership was slipping.

      Advertisement: Story continues below No contact ... Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd appear to be at odds.

      Leadership struggle … Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd appear to be at odds. Photo: Andrew Meares

      A senior Labor source told Fairfax Media this week there had been a seismic shift in support away from Ms Gillard over the summer break with a portion of the backbench now backing former prime minister Kevin Rudd in the event of a leadership spill.

      The Gillard government failed to make up ground in the first Newspoll of the year, with its primary vote flatlining on 30 per cent and Ms Gillard ceding ground to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister – though she still leads by a narrow margin of 3 percentage points.

      The next Fairfax/Nielsen poll – to be published on Monday – will come the day after Ms Gillard hosts her MPs at The Lodge on Sunday night. Parliament resumes on Tuesday.

      A supporter of Ms Gillard said all eyes would be on the poll and that “we are praying for the high 30s”.

      “It is pretty dire when the best you can expect is well below 40 per cent but there you have it,” the MP said. “If it dips back into the 20s then we have a real problem. Julia will have a real problem on her hands.”

      After campaigning at high profile events for Labor candidates standing in the Queensland election, Mr Rudd departed for Germany yesterday to attend the Munich Security Conference.

      It means he will miss an extraordinary caucus meeting that will be held before the Sunday evening function at The Lodge.

      Despite predictions by the opposition that Mr Rudd would bring on a challenge to Ms Gillard before the March 24 Queensland election, it is more likely that any confrontation would occur in May, when Parliament returns for the budget sessions.

      Parliament does not sit between late March and the May budget session but Rudd supporters were reported today as pointing to the possibility of a move when Parliament is in recess, based on the government’s performance in the first sitting session and the polls.

      A report in The Australian Financial Review quoted a Gillard supporter as saying there was now a sense of inevitability over a leadership showdown between Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd.

      “It is clear to me that it has got to be brought to a head at some stage,” said an MP who supports Ms Gillard. “It can’t keep going the way it is at the moment.”

      The Minister for Defence, Stephen Smith – who is considered to be a possible third option in a ballot – said today that Ms Gillard was “doing a good job in tough circumstances”.

      Asked if he could rule himself out of the leadership race, Mr Smith told Sky News, “The leadership is not vacant.”

      There are signs within the government the ongoing speculation over the Labor leadership is taking its toll.

      The Labor powerbroker and Cabinet minister, Bill Shorten, displayed signs of impatience when questioned today about party unrest. When asked whether Ms Gillard should bring the issue to a head and call a vote, Mr Shorten replied with a clipped ”no” while speaking on Fairfax Radio today.

      When questioned if he stood by his previous statement that he did not harbour ambitions for the Labor leadership, he replied with a single word: ”yes”.

      And quizzed on the sore subject of Mr Rudd – who Mr Shorten helped oust – and whether the Foreign Minister had accepted that he would never be prime minister again, the factional boss said: ”I believe so”.

      The Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, lashed out yesterday after an unnamed factional boss, loyal to Ms Gillard, was reported in the Herald as saying Ms Gillard was in trouble.

      “I lose patience with people who are talking to journalists and there’s no name attached to it and you wonder who on earth it was,” he said.

      Mr Combet pointed to the challenges ahead of the government. “We understand the situation in the polls and the necessity to communicate our agenda successfully to the community and we’ll work very hard to do it.”

      The Manufacturing Minister, Kim Carr – who was dumped from his role as Industry Minister in the December reshuffle and is thought to be now firmly in the Rudd camp – ducked questions yesterday over whether Ms Gillard would and should remain leader, saying: “This is stuff that’s driven directly as a result of media speculation.”

      The Communications Minister, Stephen Conroy, said yesterday MPs were “on edge” and “nervous” because the government had taken “some tough policy decisions”.

      “People continue to underestimate how tough Julia Gillard is,” he said. “We have had a string of tough decisions through last year: the carbon tax, the mining tax; we have seen the decision around poker machines where we couldn’t get the numbers to get something through, so it is not surprising to see people are a little on edge because we have taken some tough decisions.”

      The Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, said he believed a move by Mr Rudd was imminent.

      “Look, all the signs are there. It is a very, very restless caucus,” Mr Abbott told the Nine Network this morning.

      “In the end it’s up to the Labor Party to choose which failed leader it wants to take into the election.”

      Mr Abbott said he expected that to happen before the Queensland election campaign got into full swing.

      “My instinct is he’ll make a move before the Queensland election because if Kevin is such a miracle worker in Queensland you’d think they’d want him there before the state election.”

      Bookies still favour Gillard

      Bookmakers have joined the speculation that Mr Rudd will challenge on Ms Gillard sooner rather than later, with one betting agency saying it was a matter of when, not if.

      Sportsbet.com.au this morning offered odds of $1.72 that Mr Rudd will challenge Ms Gillard before the end of the month.

      The online bookmaker is offering odds of $1.40 that he will challenge by the end of March and $1.20 that he will make a bid for his old job by the end of the year.

      “Where there’s smoke there’s fire. The writing seems on the wall that Rudd will try and get back at Gillard and challenge for the leadership of the Labor party – it is a matter of when not if,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

      But Sportsbet’s odds show Ms Gillard is still favourite to be the Labor leader at the next election, although Mr Rudd has closed the gap.

      Senior minister, and fierce critic of Mr Rudd, Simon Crean is the third-most likely leader, according to the bookmakers’ latest odds.

      Labor Leader at next Federal Election (Prices in brackets from Tuesday January 24)

      $2.25   Julia Gillard           (out from $2.10)$3.00   Kevin Rudd           (in from $3.50)$4.50   Simon Crean         (steady)$6.50   Stephen Smith      (out from $6.00)$9.00   Bill Shorten           (out from $8.00)$17      Greg Combet        (steady)$67      Wayne Swan        (steady)$81      Chris Bowen         (steady)$201    Anthony Albanese  (out from $151)$201    Nicola Roxon         (steady)$251    Kate Ellis              (out from $201)$201    Nicola Roxon         (steady)$251    Peter Garrett        (steady)

      - with Richard Willingham

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  • Tony Abbott blocks Paul Keating’s ‘judo chop’ call

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